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Águilas Doradas vs Bucaramanga — Primera A 2018

Águilas Doradas
Águilas Doradas
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bucaramanga
Bucaramanga
4/7/2026Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 7Estadio Alberto Grisales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 168+ matches

Águilas Doradas43%
×Draw29%
Bucaramanga29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Águilas Doradas
1.24
Bucaramanga
0.96

Águilas Doradas creates 29% more chances

Season form · 171 home / 168 away

creates per match

Águilas Doradas
1.28
Bucaramanga
0.86

allows per match

Águilas Doradas
1.05
Bucaramanga
1.20

finishing

Águilas Doradas+0.00on par
Bucaramanga+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águilas Doradas ↓

Bucaramanga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Águilas Doradas or draw
71%
Águilas Doradas or Bucaramanga
71%
Draw or Bucaramanga
57%

Winning margin

Águilas Doradas wins by 2+
19%
Bucaramanga wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Águilas Doradas 1+ goals
71%
Águilas Doradas 2+ goals
35%
Águilas Doradas 3+ goals
13%
Bucaramanga 1+ goals
62%
Bucaramanga 2+ goals
25%
Bucaramanga 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)
60%
Bucaramanga (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águilas Doradas at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.05 · 171 matches

Bucaramanga away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.20 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águilas Doradas attack 1.28 + Bucaramanga defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.24

Bucaramanga attack 0.86 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Águilas Doradas scores more
43%
level
29%
Bucaramanga scores more
29%

Águilas Doradas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Águilas Doradas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Águilas Doradas 2–1 Bucaramanga

Águilas Doradas beat Bucaramanga 2-1 in Primera A on April 7, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Alberto Grisales in Rionegro.