Bucaramanga 0–1 Águilas Doradas: Result & Stats

Bucaramanga

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Águilas Doradas

O. Berrío 29'

10/6/2022

Primera A · Clausura - 1Estadio Alfonso López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 170+ matches

Bucaramanga45%

×Draw28%

Águilas Doradas27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BucaramangaExpected goals in this matchÁguilas Doradas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.96

Bucaramanga

1.34

Águilas Doradas

0.96

Bucaramanga creates 40% more chances

Season form · 170 home / 170 away

1.38

creates per match

0.97

0.95

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Bucaramanga

1.38

Águilas Doradas

0.97

allows per match

Bucaramanga

0.95

Águilas Doradas

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bucaramanga+0.00on par

Águilas Doradas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucaramanga ↓

Águilas Doradas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Bucaramanga or draw

73%

Bucaramanga or Águilas Doradas

72%

Draw or Águilas Doradas

55%

Winning margin

Bucaramanga wins by 2+

21%

Águilas Doradas wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bucaramanga 1+ goals

74%

Bucaramanga 2+ goals

39%

Bucaramanga 3+ goals

15%

Águilas Doradas 1+ goals

62%

Águilas Doradas 2+ goals

25%

Águilas Doradas 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)

63%

Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucaramanga at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.95 · 170 matches

Águilas Doradas away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.30 · 170 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucaramanga attack 1.38 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.34

Águilas Doradas attack 0.97 + Bucaramanga defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bucaramanga scores more

45%

level

28%

Águilas Doradas scores more

27%

Bucaramanga at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bucaramanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Jose Contreras

Águilas Doradas · G

7.7

Match Events

29'

O. Berrío↳ E. Duarte

46'

G. Torres← J. Valencia

46'

B. Téliz← R. Tavera

46'

R. Flores← A. Oliveros

59'

59'

72'

72'

78'

80'

82'

82'

86'

90+4'

90+6'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BucaramangaÁguilas

Overview

68%Possession32%

15Total Shots12

5Corners1

5Fouls19

Shots

15Total Shots12

3On Target4

9Off Target6

3Blocked2

5Inside Box7

10Outside Box5

Passing

68%Possession32%

561Total Passes262

452Accurate Passes185

81%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

5Fouls19

1Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0

Primera A: Bucaramanga 0–1 Águilas Doradas

Águilas Doradas beat Bucaramanga 1-0 in Primera A on October 6, 2022.

Goals: O. Berrío (29').

Bucaramanga controlled possession (68%) and registered 15 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Alfonso López in Bucaramanga.

Bucaramanga vs Águilas Doradas — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: Bucaramanga 0–1 Águilas Doradas