Bucak Oğuzhanspor 1–2 Kepezspor: Result & Stats

Bucak Oğuzhanspor

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Kepezspor

9/3/2025

Türkiye Kupası · 1st RoundBucak İlçe Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bucak Oğuzhanspor76%

×Draw13%

Kepezspor11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bucak OğuzhansporExpected goals in this matchKepezspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.20

1.17

Bucak Oğuzhanspor

3.20

Kepezspor

1.17

Bucak Oğuzhanspor creates 174% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

2.00

creates per match

1.00

1.33

allows per match

4.40

creates per match

Bucak Oğuzhanspor

2.00

Kepezspor

1.00

allows per match

Bucak Oğuzhanspor

1.33

Kepezspor

4.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bucak Oğuzhanspor+0.00on par

Kepezspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucak Oğuzhanspor ↓

Kepezspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–06%

4–17%

4–24%

4–32%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Bucak Oğuzhanspor or draw

89%

Bucak Oğuzhanspor or Kepezspor

87%

Draw or Kepezspor

24%

Winning margin

Bucak Oğuzhanspor wins by 2+

57%

Kepezspor wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Bucak Oğuzhanspor 1+ goals

96%

Bucak Oğuzhanspor 2+ goals

82%

Bucak Oğuzhanspor 3+ goals

60%

Kepezspor 1+ goals

69%

Kepezspor 2+ goals

33%

Kepezspor 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bucak Oğuzhanspor (draw refunded)

88%

Kepezspor (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucak Oğuzhanspor at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Kepezspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 4.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucak Oğuzhanspor attack 2.00 + Kepezspor defence 4.40 → ÷2 → 3.20

Kepezspor attack 1.00 + Bucak Oğuzhanspor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Bucak Oğuzhanspor scores more

76%

level

13%

Kepezspor scores more

11%

Bucak Oğuzhanspor at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Bucak Oğuzhanspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff