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Bucak Oğuzhanspor vs Kızılcabölükspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Bucak Oğuzhanspor
Bucak Oğuzhanspor
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kızılcabölükspor
Kızılcabölükspor
9/11/2018Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundBucak İlçe Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bucak Oğuzhanspor63%
×Draw19%
Kızılcabölükspor18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bucak Oğuzhanspor
2.33
Kızılcabölükspor
1.17

Bucak Oğuzhanspor creates 99% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Bucak Oğuzhanspor
2.00
Kızılcabölükspor
1.00

allows per match

Bucak Oğuzhanspor
1.33
Kızılcabölükspor
2.67

finishing

Bucak Oğuzhanspor+0.00on par
Kızılcabölükspor+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucak Oğuzhanspor ↓

Kızılcabölükspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Bucak Oğuzhanspor or draw
82%
Bucak Oğuzhanspor or Kızılcabölükspor
81%
Draw or Kızılcabölükspor
37%

Winning margin

Bucak Oğuzhanspor wins by 2+
41%
Kızılcabölükspor wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bucak Oğuzhanspor 1+ goals
90%
Bucak Oğuzhanspor 2+ goals
67%
Bucak Oğuzhanspor 3+ goals
41%
Kızılcabölükspor 1+ goals
69%
Kızılcabölükspor 2+ goals
33%
Kızılcabölükspor 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bucak Oğuzhanspor (draw refunded)
78%
Kızılcabölükspor (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucak Oğuzhanspor at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Kızılcabölükspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucak Oğuzhanspor attack 2.00 + Kızılcabölükspor defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Kızılcabölükspor attack 1.00 + Bucak Oğuzhanspor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Bucak Oğuzhanspor scores more
63%
level
19%
Kızılcabölükspor scores more
18%

Bucak Oğuzhanspor at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Bucak Oğuzhanspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Bucak Oğuzhanspor 3–1 Kızılcabölükspor

Bucak Oğuzhanspor beat Kızılcabölükspor 3-1 in Türkiye Kupası on September 11, 2018.

The match was played at Bucak İlçe Stadı in Bucak.