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Bucak Oğuzhanspor vs Denizlispor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Bucak Oğuzhanspor
Bucak Oğuzhanspor
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Denizlispor
Denizlispor
9/11/2024Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 1st RoundBucak İlçe Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bucak Oğuzhanspor33%
×Draw22%
Denizlispor45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bucak Oğuzhanspor
1.63
Denizlispor
1.92

Denizlispor creates 18% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Bucak Oğuzhanspor
2.00
Denizlispor
2.50

allows per match

Bucak Oğuzhanspor
1.33
Denizlispor
1.25

finishing

Bucak Oğuzhanspor+0.00on par
Denizlispor+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucak Oğuzhanspor ↓

Denizlispor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Bucak Oğuzhanspor or draw
55%
Bucak Oğuzhanspor or Denizlispor
78%
Draw or Denizlispor
67%

Winning margin

Bucak Oğuzhanspor wins by 2+
16%
Denizlispor wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Bucak Oğuzhanspor 1+ goals
80%
Bucak Oğuzhanspor 2+ goals
48%
Bucak Oğuzhanspor 3+ goals
22%
Denizlispor 1+ goals
85%
Denizlispor 2+ goals
57%
Denizlispor 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Bucak Oğuzhanspor (draw refunded)
43%
Denizlispor (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucak Oğuzhanspor at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Denizlispor away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucak Oğuzhanspor attack 2.00 + Denizlispor defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Denizlispor attack 2.50 + Bucak Oğuzhanspor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bucak Oğuzhanspor scores more
33%
level
22%
Denizlispor scores more
45%

Denizlispor at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Denizlispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bucak Oğuzhanspor vs Denizlispor

Bucak Oğuzhanspor and Denizlispor drew 0-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 11, 2024.

The match was played at Bucak İlçe Stadı in Bucak.