Bucak Oğuzhanspor 2–1 Bigaspor: Result & Stats

Bucak Oğuzhanspor

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Bigaspor

S. Karaağaç 90+4' (pen)

B. Arslanlı 5'

E. Duman 20'

8/29/2018

Türkiye Kupası · 1st RoundBucak İlçe Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bucak Oğuzhanspor55%

×Draw23%

Bigaspor22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bucak OğuzhansporExpected goals in this matchBigaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.08

Bucak Oğuzhanspor

1.83

Bigaspor

1.08

Bucak Oğuzhanspor creates 69% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

2.00

creates per match

0.83

1.33

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Bucak Oğuzhanspor

2.00

Bigaspor

0.83

allows per match

Bucak Oğuzhanspor

1.33

Bigaspor

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bucak Oğuzhanspor+0.00on par

Bigaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucak Oğuzhanspor ↓

Bigaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Bucak Oğuzhanspor or draw

78%

Bucak Oğuzhanspor or Bigaspor

77%

Draw or Bigaspor

45%

Winning margin

Bucak Oğuzhanspor wins by 2+

31%

Bigaspor wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bucak Oğuzhanspor 1+ goals

84%

Bucak Oğuzhanspor 2+ goals

54%

Bucak Oğuzhanspor 3+ goals

28%

Bigaspor 1+ goals

66%

Bigaspor 2+ goals

29%

Bigaspor 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bucak Oğuzhanspor (draw refunded)

71%

Bigaspor (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucak Oğuzhanspor at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Bigaspor away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucak Oğuzhanspor attack 2.00 + Bigaspor defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Bigaspor attack 0.83 + Bucak Oğuzhanspor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bucak Oğuzhanspor scores more

55%

level

23%

Bigaspor scores more

22%

Bucak Oğuzhanspor at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Bucak Oğuzhanspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

20'

63'

70'

78'

82'

K. Şentürk← M. Yılmaz

90+4'

S. KaraağaçPenalty

Bucak

Bigaspor

1

25

2

22

24

⚽

10

7

27

6

11

23

▼

34

35

13

5

15

10

⚽

▼

Arslanlı

4

▼

Uysal

45

Moğul

7

⚽

Karaağaç

9

▼

Aktaş

11

Obiekwe

Manager: A. Postacı

63'▲M. Türker←▼O. Uysal

70'▲H. Şimşek←▼A. Aktaş

78'▲H. Ay←▼B. Arslanlı

Bucak Oğuzhanspor substitutes

24Türker97Şimşek99Ay22Zangaloğlu94Topçuoğlu55Kaya16Karaca

Manager: İ. Küçük

82'▲K. Şentürk←▼M. Yılmaz

Bigaspor substitutes

16Şentürk12Arslan20Arslan18Avcılar26Küçük21Kaçar13Arslan