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Bubali vs Estrella — Division di Honor 2019

Bubali
Bubali
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Estrella
Estrella
5/1/2022Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Round 18Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Bubali30%
×Draw20%
Estrella50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bubali
1.79
Estrella
2.35

Estrella creates 31% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 60 away

creates per match

Bubali
1.09
Estrella
2.08

allows per match

Bubali
2.62
Estrella
2.48

finishing

Bubali+0.00on par
Estrella+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bubali ↓

Estrella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Bubali or draw
50%
Bubali or Estrella
80%
Draw or Estrella
70%

Winning margin

Bubali wins by 2+
15%
Estrella wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Bubali 1+ goals
83%
Bubali 2+ goals
53%
Bubali 3+ goals
26%
Estrella 1+ goals
90%
Estrella 2+ goals
68%
Estrella 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Bubali (draw refunded)
37%
Estrella (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bubali at home — creates 1.09, concedes 2.62 · 34 matches

Estrella away — creates 2.08, concedes 2.48 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bubali attack 1.09 + Estrella defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 1.79

Estrella attack 2.08 + Bubali defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bubali scores more
30%
level
20%
Estrella scores more
50%

Estrella at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Estrella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division di Honor: Bubali 0–3 Estrella

Estrella beat Bubali 3-0 in Division di Honor on May 1, 2022.

The match was played at Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad in Oranjestad.