Bubali 2–0 Caiquetio: Result & Stats

Bubali

FT

2 – 0

Caiquetio

10/22/2023

Division di Honor · Round 3Compleho Deportivo Frans Figaroa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Bubali24%

×Draw22%

Caiquetio54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BubaliExpected goals in this matchCaiquetio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.90

Bubali

1.18

Caiquetio

1.90

Caiquetio creates 61% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 11 away

1.09

creates per match

1.18

2.62

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Bubali

1.09

Caiquetio

1.18

allows per match

Bubali

2.62

Caiquetio

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bubali+0.00on par

Caiquetio+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bubali ↓

Caiquetio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Bubali or draw

46%

Bubali or Caiquetio

78%

Draw or Caiquetio

76%

Winning margin

Bubali wins by 2+

9%

Caiquetio wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Bubali 1+ goals

69%

Bubali 2+ goals

33%

Bubali 3+ goals

12%

Caiquetio 1+ goals

85%

Caiquetio 2+ goals

56%

Caiquetio 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Bubali (draw refunded)

30%

Caiquetio (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bubali at home — creates 1.09, concedes 2.62 · 34 matches

Caiquetio away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bubali attack 1.09 + Caiquetio defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.18

Caiquetio attack 1.18 + Bubali defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Bubali scores more

24%

level

22%

Caiquetio scores more

54%

Caiquetio at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Caiquetio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff