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BST Galaxy vs Wallidan — GFA League 2020

BST Galaxy
BST Galaxy
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Wallidan
Wallidan
11/12/2023GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

BST Galaxy32%
×Draw34%
Wallidan34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BST Galaxy
0.82
Wallidan
0.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 58 away

creates per match

BST Galaxy
0.93
Wallidan
0.84

allows per match

BST Galaxy
0.89
Wallidan
0.71

finishing

BST Galaxy+0.00on par
Wallidan+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BST Galaxy ↓

Wallidan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–116%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

BST Galaxy or draw
66%
BST Galaxy or Wallidan
66%
Draw or Wallidan
68%

Winning margin

BST Galaxy wins by 2+
10%
Wallidan wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

BST Galaxy 1+ goals
56%
BST Galaxy 2+ goals
20%
BST Galaxy 3+ goals
5%
Wallidan 1+ goals
58%
Wallidan 2+ goals
21%
Wallidan 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

BST Galaxy (draw refunded)
48%
Wallidan (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BST Galaxy at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

Wallidan away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.71 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BST Galaxy attack 0.93 + Wallidan defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.82

Wallidan attack 0.84 + BST Galaxy defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

BST Galaxy scores more
32%
level
34%
Wallidan scores more
34%

Wallidan at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Wallidan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BST Galaxy vs Wallidan

BST Galaxy and Wallidan drew 0-0 in GFA League on November 12, 2023.