BST Galaxy 1–0 Team Rhino: Result & Stats

BST Galaxy

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Team Rhino

1/31/2026

GFA League · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

BST Galaxy36%

×Draw33%

Team Rhino31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BST GalaxyExpected goals in this matchTeam Rhino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

0.86

BST Galaxy

0.95

Team Rhino

0.86

BST Galaxy creates 10% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 75 away

0.93

creates per match

0.84

0.89

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

BST Galaxy

0.93

Team Rhino

0.84

allows per match

BST Galaxy

0.89

Team Rhino

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BST Galaxy+0.00on par

Team Rhino+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BST Galaxy ↓

Team Rhino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

BST Galaxy or draw

69%

BST Galaxy or Team Rhino

67%

Draw or Team Rhino

64%

Winning margin

BST Galaxy wins by 2+

13%

Team Rhino wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

BST Galaxy 1+ goals

61%

BST Galaxy 2+ goals

25%

BST Galaxy 3+ goals

7%

Team Rhino 1+ goals

58%

Team Rhino 2+ goals

21%

Team Rhino 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

BST Galaxy (draw refunded)

54%

Team Rhino (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BST Galaxy at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

Team Rhino away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.97 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BST Galaxy attack 0.93 + Team Rhino defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.95

Team Rhino attack 0.84 + BST Galaxy defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

BST Galaxy scores more

36%

level

33%

Team Rhino scores more

31%

BST Galaxy at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "BST Galaxy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff