BST Galaxy 1–3 Medina United: Result & Stats

BST Galaxy

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Medina United

4/18/2026

GFA League · Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

BST Galaxy25%

×Draw31%

Medina United43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BST GalaxyExpected goals in this matchMedina United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.77

1.11

BST Galaxy

0.77

Medina United

1.11

Medina United creates 44% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

0.93

creates per match

1.33

0.89

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

BST Galaxy

0.93

Medina United

1.33

allows per match

BST Galaxy

0.89

Medina United

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BST Galaxy+0.00on par

Medina United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BST Galaxy ↓

Medina United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–117%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

BST Galaxy or draw

57%

BST Galaxy or Medina United

69%

Draw or Medina United

75%

Winning margin

BST Galaxy wins by 2+

8%

Medina United wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

BST Galaxy 1+ goals

54%

BST Galaxy 2+ goals

18%

BST Galaxy 3+ goals

4%

Medina United 1+ goals

67%

Medina United 2+ goals

30%

Medina United 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

BST Galaxy (draw refunded)

37%

Medina United (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BST Galaxy at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

Medina United away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BST Galaxy attack 0.93 + Medina United defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.77

Medina United attack 1.33 + BST Galaxy defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

BST Galaxy scores more

25%

level

31%

Medina United scores more

43%

Medina United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Medina United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff