BST Galaxy 1–1 Greater Tomorrow: Result & Stats

BST Galaxy

FT

1 – 1

Greater Tomorrow

5/28/2024

GFA League · Round 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

BST Galaxy36%

×Draw32%

Greater Tomorrow32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BST GalaxyExpected goals in this matchGreater Tomorrow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

0.91

BST Galaxy

0.98

Greater Tomorrow

0.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 59 away

0.93

creates per match

0.93

0.89

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

BST Galaxy

0.93

Greater Tomorrow

0.93

allows per match

BST Galaxy

0.89

Greater Tomorrow

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BST Galaxy+0.00on par

Greater Tomorrow+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BST Galaxy ↓

Greater Tomorrow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

BST Galaxy or draw

68%

BST Galaxy or Greater Tomorrow

68%

Draw or Greater Tomorrow

64%

Winning margin

BST Galaxy wins by 2+

13%

Greater Tomorrow wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

BST Galaxy 1+ goals

62%

BST Galaxy 2+ goals

26%

BST Galaxy 3+ goals

8%

Greater Tomorrow 1+ goals

60%

Greater Tomorrow 2+ goals

23%

Greater Tomorrow 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

BST Galaxy (draw refunded)

53%

Greater Tomorrow (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BST Galaxy at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

Greater Tomorrow away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.02 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BST Galaxy attack 0.93 + Greater Tomorrow defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.98

Greater Tomorrow attack 0.93 + BST Galaxy defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

BST Galaxy scores more

36%

level

32%

Greater Tomorrow scores more

32%

BST Galaxy at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "BST Galaxy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff