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BST Galaxy vs Dutch Lions — GFA League 2020

BST Galaxy
BST Galaxy
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dutch Lions
Dutch Lions
3/15/2026GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

BST Galaxy42%
×Draw32%
Dutch Lions26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BST Galaxy
1.08
Dutch Lions
0.79

BST Galaxy creates 37% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

creates per match

BST Galaxy
0.93
Dutch Lions
0.70

allows per match

BST Galaxy
0.89
Dutch Lions
1.23

finishing

BST Galaxy+0.00on par
Dutch Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BST Galaxy ↓

Dutch Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

BST Galaxy or draw
74%
BST Galaxy or Dutch Lions
68%
Draw or Dutch Lions
58%

Winning margin

BST Galaxy wins by 2+
17%
Dutch Lions wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

BST Galaxy 1+ goals
66%
BST Galaxy 2+ goals
29%
BST Galaxy 3+ goals
10%
Dutch Lions 1+ goals
55%
Dutch Lions 2+ goals
19%
Dutch Lions 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

BST Galaxy (draw refunded)
61%
Dutch Lions (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BST Galaxy at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

Dutch Lions away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BST Galaxy attack 0.93 + Dutch Lions defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.08

Dutch Lions attack 0.70 + BST Galaxy defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

BST Galaxy scores more
42%
level
32%
Dutch Lions scores more
26%

BST Galaxy at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "BST Galaxy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BST Galaxy vs Dutch Lions

BST Galaxy beat Dutch Lions 1-0 in GFA League on March 15, 2026.