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Bsk Bijelo Brdo vs Sibenik — First NL 2018

Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sibenik
Sibenik
11/11/2023First NLFirst NL · Round 14Stadion BSK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Bsk Bijelo Brdo34%
×Draw29%
Sibenik37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.07
Sibenik
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 40 away

creates per match

Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.30
Sibenik
1.27

allows per match

Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.97
Sibenik
0.85

finishing

Bsk Bijelo Brdo+0.00on par
Sibenik+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bsk Bijelo Brdo ↓

Sibenik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bsk Bijelo Brdo or draw
63%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo or Sibenik
71%
Draw or Sibenik
66%

Winning margin

Bsk Bijelo Brdo wins by 2+
13%
Sibenik wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Bsk Bijelo Brdo 1+ goals
66%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo 2+ goals
29%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo 3+ goals
9%
Sibenik 1+ goals
67%
Sibenik 2+ goals
31%
Sibenik 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bsk Bijelo Brdo (draw refunded)
48%
Sibenik (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bsk Bijelo Brdo at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.97 · 119 matches

Sibenik away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.85 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bsk Bijelo Brdo attack 1.30 + Sibenik defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.07

Sibenik attack 1.27 + Bsk Bijelo Brdo defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bsk Bijelo Brdo scores more
34%
level
29%
Sibenik scores more
37%

Sibenik at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sibenik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First NL: Bsk Bijelo Brdo 0–1 Sibenik

Sibenik beat Bsk Bijelo Brdo 1-0 in First NL on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion BSK in Bijelo Brdo.