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Bsk Bijelo Brdo vs Orijent 1919 — First NL 2018

Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Orijent 1919
Orijent 1919
4/4/2026First NLFirst NL · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Bsk Bijelo Brdo43%
×Draw26%
Orijent 191931%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.42
Orijent 1919
1.15

Bsk Bijelo Brdo creates 23% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 109 away

creates per match

Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.30
Orijent 1919
1.32

allows per match

Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.97
Orijent 1919
1.54

finishing

Bsk Bijelo Brdo+0.00on par
Orijent 1919+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bsk Bijelo Brdo ↓

Orijent 1919 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bsk Bijelo Brdo or draw
69%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo or Orijent 1919
74%
Draw or Orijent 1919
57%

Winning margin

Bsk Bijelo Brdo wins by 2+
21%
Orijent 1919 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bsk Bijelo Brdo 1+ goals
76%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo 2+ goals
41%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo 3+ goals
17%
Orijent 1919 1+ goals
68%
Orijent 1919 2+ goals
32%
Orijent 1919 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bsk Bijelo Brdo (draw refunded)
59%
Orijent 1919 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bsk Bijelo Brdo at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.97 · 119 matches

Orijent 1919 away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.54 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bsk Bijelo Brdo attack 1.30 + Orijent 1919 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.42

Orijent 1919 attack 1.32 + Bsk Bijelo Brdo defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bsk Bijelo Brdo scores more
43%
level
26%
Orijent 1919 scores more
31%

Bsk Bijelo Brdo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bsk Bijelo Brdo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First NL: Bsk Bijelo Brdo 1–1 Orijent 1919

Bsk Bijelo Brdo and Orijent 1919 drew 1-1 in First NL on April 4, 2026.