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Bsk Bijelo Brdo vs Jarun — First NL 2018

Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Jarun
Jarun
9/13/2025First NLFirst NL · Round 5Stadion BSK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Bsk Bijelo Brdo46%
×Draw28%
Jarun26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.32
Jarun
0.91

Bsk Bijelo Brdo creates 45% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 82 away

creates per match

Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.30
Jarun
0.85

allows per match

Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.97
Jarun
1.34

finishing

Bsk Bijelo Brdo+0.00on par
Jarun+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bsk Bijelo Brdo ↓

Jarun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bsk Bijelo Brdo or draw
74%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo or Jarun
72%
Draw or Jarun
54%

Winning margin

Bsk Bijelo Brdo wins by 2+
21%
Jarun wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bsk Bijelo Brdo 1+ goals
73%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo 2+ goals
38%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo 3+ goals
15%
Jarun 1+ goals
60%
Jarun 2+ goals
23%
Jarun 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Bsk Bijelo Brdo (draw refunded)
64%
Jarun (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bsk Bijelo Brdo at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.97 · 119 matches

Jarun away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.34 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bsk Bijelo Brdo attack 1.30 + Jarun defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.32

Jarun attack 0.85 + Bsk Bijelo Brdo defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bsk Bijelo Brdo scores more
46%
level
28%
Jarun scores more
26%

Bsk Bijelo Brdo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bsk Bijelo Brdo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bsk Bijelo Brdo vs Jarun

Bsk Bijelo Brdo beat Jarun 2-0 in First NL on September 13, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion BSK in Bijelo Brdo.