Bsk Bijelo Brdo 0–3 Inter Zapresic: Result & Stats

Bsk Bijelo Brdo

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Inter Zapresic

S. Marasovic 79', 56'

L. Banovec 15'

11/21/2021

First NL · Round 13Stadion BSK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Bsk Bijelo Brdo42%

×Draw27%

Inter Zapresic30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bsk Bijelo BrdoExpected goals in this matchInter Zapresic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.08

Bsk Bijelo Brdo

1.32

Inter Zapresic

1.08

Bsk Bijelo Brdo creates 22% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 32 away

1.30

creates per match

1.19

0.97

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Bsk Bijelo Brdo

1.30

Inter Zapresic

1.19

allows per match

Bsk Bijelo Brdo

0.97

Inter Zapresic

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bsk Bijelo Brdo+0.00on par

Inter Zapresic+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bsk Bijelo Brdo ↓

Inter Zapresic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Bsk Bijelo Brdo or draw

70%

Bsk Bijelo Brdo or Inter Zapresic

73%

Draw or Inter Zapresic

58%

Winning margin

Bsk Bijelo Brdo wins by 2+

19%

Inter Zapresic wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bsk Bijelo Brdo 1+ goals

73%

Bsk Bijelo Brdo 2+ goals

38%

Bsk Bijelo Brdo 3+ goals

15%

Inter Zapresic 1+ goals

66%

Inter Zapresic 2+ goals

29%

Inter Zapresic 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bsk Bijelo Brdo (draw refunded)

58%

Inter Zapresic (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bsk Bijelo Brdo at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.97 · 119 matches

Inter Zapresic away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bsk Bijelo Brdo attack 1.30 + Inter Zapresic defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.32

Inter Zapresic attack 1.19 + Bsk Bijelo Brdo defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bsk Bijelo Brdo scores more

42%

level

27%

Inter Zapresic scores more

30%

Bsk Bijelo Brdo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bsk Bijelo Brdo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

L. Banovec

46'

I. Bolaño← I. Žutić

46'

I. Miihaljević← T. Bošnjaković

51'

I. Mihaljevic

56'

59'

65'

68'

75'

79'

80'

88'

L. Dumančić← G. Gamarra

88'

V. Miljanić← L. Banovec

90'

M. Zorica← N. Rak

90'

F. Soldo← I. Pejić

Bsk

Inter

1

Lukić

6

Nekić

3

Barišić

33

▼

Gamarra

4

Jelenić

20

▼

Uzelac

10

▼

Rak

29

⚽2

Marasovic

25

Uzelac

11

⚽

▼

Banovec

9

▼

19

1

31

23

16

22

▼

Žutić

28

▼

Mišić

4

Šimičić

10

Ilić

25

▼

Bošnjakov

9

▼

Čikvar

Manager: T. Steinbrückner

46'▲I. Bolaño←▼I. Žutić

46'▲I. Miihaljević←▼T. Bošnjaković

65'▲I. Lozić←▼M. Mišić

75'▲N. Nešić←▼J. Čikvar

Bsk Bijelo Brdo substitutes

7Bolaño20Miihaljević29Lozić11Nešić5Gbane12Ezgeta17Mihaljević18Selbol24Periša

Manager: B. Perković

80'▲D. Magdić←▼L. Uzelac

88'▲L. Dumančić←▼G. Gamarra

88'▲V. Miljanić←▼L. Banovec

90'▲M. Zorica←▼N. Rak

90'▲F. Soldo←▼I. Pejić

Inter Zapresic substitutes

16Magdić15Dumančić8Miljanić5Zorica28Soldo7Benčić12Križanović13Vukasović26Marcijuš

Match Recap: Bsk Bijelo Brdo vs Inter Zapresic

Inter Zapresic beat Bsk Bijelo Brdo 3-0 in First NL on November 21, 2021.

Goals: L. Banovec (15'), S. Marasovic (56', 79').

The match was played at Stadion BSK in Bijelo Brdo.

Bsk Bijelo Brdo vs Inter Zapresic — First NL 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Bsk Bijelo Brdo vs Inter Zapresic