BSK Batajnica 0–2 Sindjelic Beograd: Result & Stats

BSK Batajnica

FT

0 – 2

Sindjelic Beograd

11/29/2020

Srpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 19Sportski Centar BSK Batajnica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

BSK Batajnica30%

×Draw30%

Sindjelic Beograd40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BSK BatajnicaExpected goals in this matchSindjelic Beograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

1.11

BSK Batajnica

0.92

Sindjelic Beograd

1.11

Sindjelic Beograd creates 21% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 49 away

0.47

creates per match

0.86

1.37

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

BSK Batajnica

0.47

Sindjelic Beograd

0.86

allows per match

BSK Batajnica

1.37

Sindjelic Beograd

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BSK Batajnica+0.00on par

Sindjelic Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSK Batajnica ↓

Sindjelic Beograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–115%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

BSK Batajnica or draw

60%

BSK Batajnica or Sindjelic Beograd

70%

Draw or Sindjelic Beograd

70%

Winning margin

BSK Batajnica wins by 2+

10%

Sindjelic Beograd wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

BSK Batajnica 1+ goals

60%

BSK Batajnica 2+ goals

23%

BSK Batajnica 3+ goals

7%

Sindjelic Beograd 1+ goals

67%

Sindjelic Beograd 2+ goals

30%

Sindjelic Beograd 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

BSK Batajnica (draw refunded)

43%

Sindjelic Beograd (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSK Batajnica at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Sindjelic Beograd away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.37 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSK Batajnica attack 0.47 + Sindjelic Beograd defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 0.92

Sindjelic Beograd attack 0.86 + BSK Batajnica defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

BSK Batajnica scores more

30%

level

30%

Sindjelic Beograd scores more

40%

Sindjelic Beograd at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sindjelic Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff