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BSK Batajnica vs Radnički Obrenovac — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

BSK Batajnica
BSK Batajnica
FT
0 – 1
Radnički Obrenovac
Radnički Obrenovac
4/11/2021Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 27Sportski Centar BSK Batajnica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

BSK Batajnica25%
×Draw27%
Radnički Obrenovac48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BSK Batajnica
0.94
Radnički Obrenovac
1.40

Radnički Obrenovac creates 49% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 98 away

creates per match

BSK Batajnica
0.47
Radnički Obrenovac
1.43

allows per match

BSK Batajnica
1.37
Radnički Obrenovac
1.41

finishing

BSK Batajnica+0.00on par
Radnički Obrenovac+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSK Batajnica ↓

Radnički Obrenovac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

BSK Batajnica or draw
52%
BSK Batajnica or Radnički Obrenovac
73%
Draw or Radnički Obrenovac
75%

Winning margin

BSK Batajnica wins by 2+
9%
Radnički Obrenovac wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

BSK Batajnica 1+ goals
61%
BSK Batajnica 2+ goals
24%
BSK Batajnica 3+ goals
7%
Radnički Obrenovac 1+ goals
75%
Radnički Obrenovac 2+ goals
41%
Radnički Obrenovac 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

BSK Batajnica (draw refunded)
35%
Radnički Obrenovac (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSK Batajnica at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Radnički Obrenovac away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.41 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSK Batajnica attack 0.47 + Radnički Obrenovac defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 0.94

Radnički Obrenovac attack 1.43 + BSK Batajnica defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

BSK Batajnica scores more
25%
level
27%
Radnički Obrenovac scores more
48%

Radnički Obrenovac at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Radnički Obrenovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BSK Batajnica vs Radnički Obrenovac

Radnički Obrenovac beat BSK Batajnica 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on April 11, 2021.

The match was played at Sportski Centar BSK Batajnica in Batajnica.