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BSK Batajnica vs Radnički Novi Beograd — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

BSK Batajnica
BSK Batajnica
FT
2 – 2
Radnički Novi Beograd
Radnički Novi Beograd
9/6/2020Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 4Sportski Centar BSK Batajnica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

BSK Batajnica28%
×Draw28%
Radnički Novi Beograd44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BSK Batajnica
0.98
Radnički Novi Beograd
1.29

Radnički Novi Beograd creates 32% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 69 away

creates per match

BSK Batajnica
0.47
Radnički Novi Beograd
1.22

allows per match

BSK Batajnica
1.37
Radnički Novi Beograd
1.49

finishing

BSK Batajnica+0.00on par
Radnički Novi Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSK Batajnica ↓

Radnički Novi Beograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

BSK Batajnica or draw
56%
BSK Batajnica or Radnički Novi Beograd
72%
Draw or Radnički Novi Beograd
72%

Winning margin

BSK Batajnica wins by 2+
10%
Radnički Novi Beograd wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

BSK Batajnica 1+ goals
62%
BSK Batajnica 2+ goals
26%
BSK Batajnica 3+ goals
8%
Radnički Novi Beograd 1+ goals
72%
Radnički Novi Beograd 2+ goals
37%
Radnički Novi Beograd 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

BSK Batajnica (draw refunded)
39%
Radnički Novi Beograd (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSK Batajnica at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Radnički Novi Beograd away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.49 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSK Batajnica attack 0.47 + Radnički Novi Beograd defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 0.98

Radnički Novi Beograd attack 1.22 + BSK Batajnica defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

BSK Batajnica scores more
28%
level
28%
Radnički Novi Beograd scores more
44%

Radnički Novi Beograd at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Radnički Novi Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BSK Batajnica vs Radnički Novi Beograd

BSK Batajnica and Radnički Novi Beograd drew 2-2 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on September 6, 2020.

The match was played at Sportski Centar BSK Batajnica in Batajnica.