BSK Batajnica 0–3 Jedinstvo Su: Result & Stats

BSK Batajnica

FT

0 – 3

Jedinstvo Su

3/7/2021

Srpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 20Sportski Centar BSK Batajnica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

BSK Batajnica29%

×Draw29%

Jedinstvo Su41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BSK BatajnicaExpected goals in this matchJedinstvo Su

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.18

BSK Batajnica

0.95

Jedinstvo Su

1.18

Jedinstvo Su creates 24% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 100 away

0.47

creates per match

0.99

1.37

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

BSK Batajnica

0.47

Jedinstvo Su

0.99

allows per match

BSK Batajnica

1.37

Jedinstvo Su

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BSK Batajnica+0.00on par

Jedinstvo Su+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSK Batajnica ↓

Jedinstvo Su →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

BSK Batajnica or draw

59%

BSK Batajnica or Jedinstvo Su

71%

Draw or Jedinstvo Su

71%

Winning margin

BSK Batajnica wins by 2+

11%

Jedinstvo Su wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

BSK Batajnica 1+ goals

61%

BSK Batajnica 2+ goals

25%

BSK Batajnica 3+ goals

7%

Jedinstvo Su 1+ goals

69%

Jedinstvo Su 2+ goals

33%

Jedinstvo Su 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

BSK Batajnica (draw refunded)

42%

Jedinstvo Su (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSK Batajnica at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Jedinstvo Su away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.43 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSK Batajnica attack 0.47 + Jedinstvo Su defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 0.95

Jedinstvo Su attack 0.99 + BSK Batajnica defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

BSK Batajnica scores more

29%

level

29%

Jedinstvo Su scores more

41%

Jedinstvo Su at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Jedinstvo Su will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff