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BSK Batajnica vs Crvena Zvezda MML — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

BSK Batajnica
BSK Batajnica
FT
2 – 0
Crvena Zvezda MML
Crvena Zvezda MML
10/4/2020Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 9Sportski Centar BSK Batajnica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

BSK Batajnica39%
×Draw28%
Crvena Zvezda MML32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BSK Batajnica
1.23
Crvena Zvezda MML
1.09

BSK Batajnica creates 13% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 27 away

creates per match

BSK Batajnica
0.47
Crvena Zvezda MML
0.81

allows per match

BSK Batajnica
1.37
Crvena Zvezda MML
2.00

finishing

BSK Batajnica+0.00on par
Crvena Zvezda MML+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSK Batajnica ↓

Crvena Zvezda MML →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

BSK Batajnica or draw
68%
BSK Batajnica or Crvena Zvezda MML
72%
Draw or Crvena Zvezda MML
61%

Winning margin

BSK Batajnica wins by 2+
17%
Crvena Zvezda MML wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

BSK Batajnica 1+ goals
71%
BSK Batajnica 2+ goals
35%
BSK Batajnica 3+ goals
13%
Crvena Zvezda MML 1+ goals
66%
Crvena Zvezda MML 2+ goals
30%
Crvena Zvezda MML 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

BSK Batajnica (draw refunded)
55%
Crvena Zvezda MML (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSK Batajnica at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Crvena Zvezda MML away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.00 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSK Batajnica attack 0.47 + Crvena Zvezda MML defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Crvena Zvezda MML attack 0.81 + BSK Batajnica defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

BSK Batajnica scores more
39%
level
28%
Crvena Zvezda MML scores more
32%

BSK Batajnica at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "BSK Batajnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BSK Batajnica vs Crvena Zvezda MML

BSK Batajnica beat Crvena Zvezda MML 2-0 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on October 4, 2020.

The match was played at Sportski Centar BSK Batajnica in Batajnica.