BSK Batajnica 1–4 BSK Borca: Result & Stats

BSK Batajnica

FT

1 – 4

BSK Borca

10/25/2020

Srpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 13Sportski Centar BSK Batajnica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

BSK Batajnica30%

×Draw28%

BSK Borca42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BSK BatajnicaExpected goals in this matchBSK Borca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.27

BSK Batajnica

1.03

BSK Borca

1.27

BSK Borca creates 23% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 58 away

0.47

creates per match

1.16

1.37

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

BSK Batajnica

0.47

BSK Borca

1.16

allows per match

BSK Batajnica

1.37

BSK Borca

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BSK Batajnica+0.00on par

BSK Borca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSK Batajnica ↓

BSK Borca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

BSK Batajnica or draw

58%

BSK Batajnica or BSK Borca

72%

Draw or BSK Borca

70%

Winning margin

BSK Batajnica wins by 2+

11%

BSK Borca wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

BSK Batajnica 1+ goals

64%

BSK Batajnica 2+ goals

28%

BSK Batajnica 3+ goals

9%

BSK Borca 1+ goals

72%

BSK Borca 2+ goals

36%

BSK Borca 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

BSK Batajnica (draw refunded)

42%

BSK Borca (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSK Batajnica at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

BSK Borca away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.59 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSK Batajnica attack 0.47 + BSK Borca defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.03

BSK Borca attack 1.16 + BSK Batajnica defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

BSK Batajnica scores more

30%

level

28%

BSK Borca scores more

42%

BSK Borca at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "BSK Borca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff