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BSK Banja Luka vs Laktaši — 1st League - RS 2019

BSK Banja Luka
BSK Banja Luka
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Laktaši
Laktaši
3/9/20241st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 19Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

BSK Banja Luka45%
×Draw25%
Laktaši31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BSK Banja Luka
1.57
Laktaši
1.26

BSK Banja Luka creates 25% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 65 away

creates per match

BSK Banja Luka
2.14
Laktaši
1.71

allows per match

BSK Banja Luka
0.82
Laktaši
1.00

finishing

BSK Banja Luka+0.00on par
Laktaši+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSK Banja Luka ↓

Laktaši →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

BSK Banja Luka or draw
69%
BSK Banja Luka or Laktaši
75%
Draw or Laktaši
55%

Winning margin

BSK Banja Luka wins by 2+
22%
Laktaši wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

BSK Banja Luka 1+ goals
79%
BSK Banja Luka 2+ goals
46%
BSK Banja Luka 3+ goals
21%
Laktaši 1+ goals
72%
Laktaši 2+ goals
36%
Laktaši 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

BSK Banja Luka (draw refunded)
59%
Laktaši (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSK Banja Luka at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.82 · 49 matches

Laktaši away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSK Banja Luka attack 2.14 + Laktaši defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.57

Laktaši attack 1.71 + BSK Banja Luka defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

BSK Banja Luka scores more
45%
level
25%
Laktaši scores more
31%

BSK Banja Luka at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "BSK Banja Luka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: BSK Banja Luka 1–0 Laktaši

BSK Banja Luka beat Laktaši 1-0 in 1st League - RS on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Banja Luka.