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BSG Chemie Leipzig vs VfL Halle — Friendlies Clubs 2026

BSG Chemie Leipzig
BSG Chemie Leipzig
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
VfL Halle
VfL Halle
1/10/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Alfred-Kunze-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

BSG Chemie Leipzig55%
×Draw19%
VfL Halle27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BSG Chemie Leipzig
2.67
VfL Halle
1.86

BSG Chemie Leipzig creates 44% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 5 away

creates per match

BSG Chemie Leipzig
2.14
VfL Halle
1.80

allows per match

BSG Chemie Leipzig
1.93
VfL Halle
3.20

finishing

BSG Chemie Leipzig+0.00on par
VfL Halle+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSG Chemie Leipzig ↓

VfL Halle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

BSG Chemie Leipzig or draw
73%
BSG Chemie Leipzig or VfL Halle
81%
Draw or VfL Halle
45%

Winning margin

BSG Chemie Leipzig wins by 2+
35%
VfL Halle wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

BSG Chemie Leipzig 1+ goals
93%
BSG Chemie Leipzig 2+ goals
74%
BSG Chemie Leipzig 3+ goals
49%
VfL Halle 1+ goals
84%
VfL Halle 2+ goals
55%
VfL Halle 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

BSG Chemie Leipzig (draw refunded)
67%
VfL Halle (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSG Chemie Leipzig at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

VfL Halle away — creates 1.80, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSG Chemie Leipzig attack 2.14 + VfL Halle defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.67

VfL Halle attack 1.80 + BSG Chemie Leipzig defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

BSG Chemie Leipzig scores more
55%
level
19%
VfL Halle scores more
27%

BSG Chemie Leipzig at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "BSG Chemie Leipzig will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: BSG Chemie Leipzig 3–2 VfL Halle

BSG Chemie Leipzig beat VfL Halle 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 10, 2024.

The match was played at Alfred-Kunze-Sportpark in Leipzig.