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BSG Chemie Leipzig vs Plauen — Friendlies Clubs 2026

BSG Chemie Leipzig
BSG Chemie Leipzig
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Plauen
Plauen
S. Ratifo 61' (pen)
R. Lisinski 40'
J. Martynets 37'
P. Kampfer 14'
T. Profis 10'
1/14/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

BSG Chemie Leipzig59%
×Draw19%
Plauen23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BSG Chemie Leipzig
2.57
Plauen
1.57

BSG Chemie Leipzig creates 64% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 5 away

creates per match

BSG Chemie Leipzig
1.94
Plauen
1.40

allows per match

BSG Chemie Leipzig
1.75
Plauen
3.20

finishing

BSG Chemie Leipzig+0.00on par
Plauen+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSG Chemie Leipzig ↓

Plauen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

BSG Chemie Leipzig or draw
77%
BSG Chemie Leipzig or Plauen
81%
Draw or Plauen
41%

Winning margin

BSG Chemie Leipzig wins by 2+
38%
Plauen wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

BSG Chemie Leipzig 1+ goals
92%
BSG Chemie Leipzig 2+ goals
72%
BSG Chemie Leipzig 3+ goals
47%
Plauen 1+ goals
79%
Plauen 2+ goals
46%
Plauen 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

BSG Chemie Leipzig (draw refunded)
72%
Plauen (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSG Chemie Leipzig at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.75 · 16 matches

Plauen away — creates 1.40, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSG Chemie Leipzig attack 1.94 + Plauen defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.57

Plauen attack 1.40 + BSG Chemie Leipzig defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

BSG Chemie Leipzig scores more
59%
level
19%
Plauen scores more
23%

BSG Chemie Leipzig at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "BSG Chemie Leipzig will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
T. Profis
14'
P. Kampfer
37'
J. Martynets
40'
R. Lisinski
61'
S. RatifoPenalty
BSG
Plauen
A. Alipour
Manager: A. Alipour
K. Oswald
Manager: K. Oswald

Friendlies Clubs: BSG Chemie Leipzig 2–3 Plauen

Plauen beat BSG Chemie Leipzig 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 14, 2026.

Goals: T. Profis (10'), P. Kampfer (14'), J. Martynets (37'), R. Lisinski (40'), S. Ratifo (61' pen).