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BSF W vs Fortuna Hjørring W — Kvindeliga 2019

BSF W
BSF W
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Fortuna Hjørring W
Fortuna Hjørring W
9/15/2019KvindeligaKvindeliga · Round 7Ballerup Idrætspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

BSF W14%
×Draw18%
Fortuna Hjørring W68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BSF W
1.01
Fortuna Hjørring W
2.40

Fortuna Hjørring W creates 138% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 80 away

creates per match

BSF W
1.00
Fortuna Hjørring W
1.93

allows per match

BSF W
2.88
Fortuna Hjørring W
1.02

finishing

BSF W+0.00on par
Fortuna Hjørring W+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSF W ↓

Fortuna Hjørring W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–210%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

BSF W or draw
32%
BSF W or Fortuna Hjørring W
82%
Draw or Fortuna Hjørring W
86%

Winning margin

BSF W wins by 2+
5%
Fortuna Hjørring W wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

BSF W 1+ goals
64%
BSF W 2+ goals
27%
BSF W 3+ goals
8%
Fortuna Hjørring W 1+ goals
91%
Fortuna Hjørring W 2+ goals
69%
Fortuna Hjørring W 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

BSF W (draw refunded)
18%
Fortuna Hjørring W (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSF W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.88 · 8 matches

Fortuna Hjørring W away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.02 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSF W attack 1.00 + Fortuna Hjørring W defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.01

Fortuna Hjørring W attack 1.93 + BSF W defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

BSF W scores more
14%
level
18%
Fortuna Hjørring W scores more
68%

Fortuna Hjørring W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Fortuna Hjørring W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BSF W vs Fortuna Hjørring W

Fortuna Hjørring W beat BSF W 4-1 in Kvindeliga on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Ballerup Idrætspark in Ballerup.