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BSC Young Boys vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe — Friendlies Clubs 2026

BSC Young Boys
BSC Young Boys
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1/7/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Venue Bellis Hotel Sports Center - Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

BSC Young Boys54%
×Draw22%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BSC Young Boys
1.94
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.22

BSC Young Boys creates 59% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 8 away

creates per match

BSC Young Boys
2.50
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.38

allows per match

BSC Young Boys
1.06
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.38

finishing

BSC Young Boys+0.00on par
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSC Young Boys ↓

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

BSC Young Boys or draw
76%
BSC Young Boys or Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
78%
Draw or Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
46%

Winning margin

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+
31%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals
86%
BSC Young Boys 2+ goals
58%
BSC Young Boys 3+ goals
30%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1+ goals
70%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2+ goals
34%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)
69%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSC Young Boys at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSC Young Boys attack 2.50 + Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.94

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe attack 1.38 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

BSC Young Boys scores more
54%
level
22%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe scores more
24%

BSC Young Boys at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "BSC Young Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

BSC Young Boys 4 – 1 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

BSC Young Boys beat Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 4-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 7, 2025.

The match was played at Venue Bellis Hotel Sports Center - Field 1 in Belek.