BSC Young Boys 6–0 Neuchatel Xamax FC

BSC Young Boys

FT

6 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Neuchatel Xamax FC

M. Elia 90+1'

V. Sierro 79'

J. Nsamé 45', 40'

C. Fassnacht 42'

M. Aebischer 37'

6/27/2020

Super League · Round 26STADE DE SUISSE Wankdorf Bern

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

BSC Young Boys67%

×Draw19%

Neuchatel Xamax FC14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BSC Young BoysExpected goals in this matchNeuchatel Xamax FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

0.95

BSC Young Boys

2.29

Neuchatel Xamax FC

0.95

BSC Young Boys creates 141% more chances

Season form · 143 home / 35 away

2.56

creates per match

0.97

0.92

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

BSC Young Boys

2.56

Neuchatel Xamax FC

0.97

allows per match

BSC Young Boys

0.92

Neuchatel Xamax FC

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BSC Young Boys+0.00on par

Neuchatel Xamax FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSC Young Boys ↓

Neuchatel Xamax FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

BSC Young Boys or draw

86%

BSC Young Boys or Neuchatel Xamax FC

81%

Draw or Neuchatel Xamax FC

33%

Winning margin

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+

44%

Neuchatel Xamax FC wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals

90%

BSC Young Boys 2+ goals

66%

BSC Young Boys 3+ goals

40%

Neuchatel Xamax FC 1+ goals

61%

Neuchatel Xamax FC 2+ goals

25%

Neuchatel Xamax FC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)

82%

Neuchatel Xamax FC (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSC Young Boys at home — creates 2.56, concedes 0.92 · 143 matches

Neuchatel Xamax FC away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.03 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSC Young Boys attack 2.56 + Neuchatel Xamax FC defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.29

Neuchatel Xamax FC attack 0.97 + BSC Young Boys defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

BSC Young Boys scores more

67%

level

19%

Neuchatel Xamax FC scores more

14%

BSC Young Boys at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "BSC Young Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

C. Fassnacht

BSC Young Boys · M

9.0

Match Events

15'

L. Abanda

26'

M. Araz

37'

M. Aebischer↳ G. Gaudino

40'

J. Nsamé↳ C. Fassnacht

42'

C. Fassnacht↳ J. Lotomba

45'

J. Nsamé↳ G. Gaudino

46'

M. Haile-Selassie← J. Djourou

46'

S. Ramizi← D. Sakho

46'

André Luís← X. Kouassi

46'

T. Sulejmanov← R. Nuzzolo

56'

U. Garcia← J. Lotomba

56'

F. Sørensen← F. Lustenberger

56'

V. Sierro← M. Aebischer

71'

M. Elia← J. Nsamé

73'

M. Ngamaleu← M. Sulejmani

73'

79'

82'

82'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BSCNeuchatel

Overview

67%Possession33%

26Total Shots4

4Corners2

14Fouls14

Shots

26Total Shots4

9On Target0

11Off Target1

6Blocked3

18Inside Box3

8Outside Box1

Passing

67%Possession33%

602Total Passes292

524Accurate Passes205

87%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls14

0Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

2Offsides4