BSC Young Boys 3–2 Ludogorets: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BSC Young BoysExpected goals in this matchLudogorets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.34

BSC Young Boys

1.86

Ludogorets

1.34

BSC Young Boys creates 39% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 28 away

1.86

creates per match

1.25

1.43

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

BSC Young Boys

1.86

Ludogorets

1.25

allows per match

BSC Young Boys

1.43

Ludogorets

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BSC Young Boys+0.00on par

Ludogorets+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSC Young Boys ↓

Ludogorets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

BSC Young Boys or draw

72%

BSC Young Boys or Ludogorets

77%

Draw or Ludogorets

50%

Winning margin

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+

28%

Ludogorets wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals

84%

BSC Young Boys 2+ goals

55%

BSC Young Boys 3+ goals

28%

Ludogorets 1+ goals

74%

Ludogorets 2+ goals

39%

Ludogorets 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)

64%

Ludogorets (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSC Young Boys at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

Ludogorets away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.86 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSC Young Boys attack 1.86 + Ludogorets defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.86

Ludogorets attack 1.25 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

BSC Young Boys scores more

50%

level

23%

Ludogorets scores more

28%

BSC Young Boys at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "BSC Young Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

P. Stanic↳ B. Tekpetey

35'

C. Fassnacht← D. Males

45'

R. Raveloson↳ R. Andrews

53'

C. Fassnacht↳ E. Fernandes

60'

Armin GigovićPenalty confirmed

62'

Caio Vidal

63'

C. BediaPenalty

64'

Son← S. Ivanov

64'

E. Bile← B. Tekpetey

78'

S. Cordova← J. Monteiro

78'

S. Lauper← A. Gigovic

78'

I. Chochev← D. Duarte

78'

I. Yordanov← F. Kaloc

86'

D. Pech← E. Fernandes

86'

90+5'

90+2'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BSCLudogorets

Overview

59%Possession41%

15Total Shots15

4.36Expected Goals (xG)0.99

3Corners2

9Fouls9

Shots

15Total Shots15

6On Target4

9Off Target10

0Blocked1

13Inside Box9

2Outside Box6

Passing

59%Possession41%

516Total Passes358

441Accurate Passes279

85%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

-0.27Goals Prevented-0.27

Discipline

9Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides2

UEFA Europa League: BSC Young Boys 3–2 Ludogorets

BSC Young Boys beat Ludogorets 3-2 in UEFA Europa League on October 23, 2025.

Goals: P. Stanic (26'), R. Raveloson (45'), C. Fassnacht (53'), C. Bedia (63' pen), I. Yordanov (90').

BSC Young Boys controlled possession (59%) and registered 15 shots to 15.

The match was played at Wankdorf Stadion in Bern.

BSC Young Boys vs Ludogorets — UEFA Europa League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UEFA Europa League: BSC Young Boys 3–2 Ludogorets