BSC Young Boys 3–0 KuPS: Result & Stats

BSC Young Boys

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

KuPS

8/11/2022

UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying RoundStadion Wankdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

BSC Young Boys61%

×Draw25%

KuPS14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BSC Young BoysExpected goals in this matchKuPS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.59

BSC Young Boys

1.57

KuPS

0.59

BSC Young Boys creates 166% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

2.00

creates per match

0.85

0.33

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

BSC Young Boys

2.00

KuPS

0.85

allows per match

BSC Young Boys

0.33

KuPS

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BSC Young Boys+0.00on par

KuPS+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSC Young Boys ↓

KuPS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

BSC Young Boys or draw

86%

BSC Young Boys or KuPS

75%

Draw or KuPS

39%

Winning margin

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+

33%

KuPS wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals

79%

BSC Young Boys 2+ goals

46%

BSC Young Boys 3+ goals

21%

KuPS 1+ goals

45%

KuPS 2+ goals

12%

KuPS 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)

82%

KuPS (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSC Young Boys at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

KuPS away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSC Young Boys attack 2.00 + KuPS defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.57

KuPS attack 0.85 + BSC Young Boys defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

BSC Young Boys scores more

61%

level

25%

KuPS scores more

14%

BSC Young Boys at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "BSC Young Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff