BSC Young Boys 2–0 Feyenoord: Result & Stats

BSC Young Boys

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Feyenoord

J. Nsamé 28' (pen)

R. Assalé 14' (pen)

10/24/2019

UEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 3Stadion Wankdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

BSC Young Boys49%

×Draw24%

Feyenoord27%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BSC Young BoysExpected goals in this matchFeyenoord

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.19

BSC Young Boys

1.71

Feyenoord

1.19

BSC Young Boys creates 44% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 16 away

1.86

creates per match

0.94

1.43

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

BSC Young Boys

1.86

Feyenoord

0.94

allows per match

BSC Young Boys

1.43

Feyenoord

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BSC Young Boys+0.00on par

Feyenoord+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSC Young Boys ↓

Feyenoord →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

BSC Young Boys or draw

73%

BSC Young Boys or Feyenoord

76%

Draw or Feyenoord

51%

Winning margin

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+

27%

Feyenoord wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals

82%

BSC Young Boys 2+ goals

51%

BSC Young Boys 3+ goals

24%

Feyenoord 1+ goals

70%

Feyenoord 2+ goals

33%

Feyenoord 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)

65%

Feyenoord (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSC Young Boys at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

Feyenoord away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSC Young Boys attack 1.86 + Feyenoord defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.71

Feyenoord attack 0.94 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

BSC Young Boys scores more

49%

level

24%

Feyenoord scores more

27%

BSC Young Boys at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "BSC Young Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

D. von Ballmoos

BSC Young Boys · G

7.5

Match Events

14'

Edgar Ié

14'

R. AssaléPenalty

27'

Kenneth Vermeer

28'

J. NsaméPenalty

37'

Eric Botteghin← Edgar Ié

38'

Frederik Sørensen

42'

G. Gaudino← F. Lustenberger

66'

N. Bürgy← R. Assalé

69'

Leroy Fer

74'

L. Narsingh← O. Kökçü

82'

R. Haps← T. Malacia

86'

Steven Berghuis

86'

U. Garcia← C. Fassnacht

87'

Ridgeciano Haps

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BSCFeyenoord

Overview

34%Possession66%

10Total Shots10

8Corners9

12Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots10

3On Target2

5Off Target4

2Blocked4

7Inside Box2

3Outside Box8

Passing

34%Possession66%

305Total Passes585

223Accurate Passes492

73%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls14

1Yellow Cards5

1Offsides1