Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

BSC Young Boys vs FC Winterthur — Super League 2018

BSC Young Boys
BSC Young Boys
FT
5 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
FC Winterthur
FC Winterthur
8/5/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 3Stadion Wankdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

BSC Young Boys50%
×Draw22%
FC Winterthur28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BSC Young Boys
2.00
FC Winterthur
1.46

BSC Young Boys creates 37% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

BSC Young Boys
1.78
FC Winterthur
1.79

allows per match

BSC Young Boys
1.13
FC Winterthur
2.21

finishing

BSC Young Boys-0.49scores less
FC Winterthur-0.01on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSC Young Boys ↓

FC Winterthur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

BSC Young Boys or draw
72%
BSC Young Boys or FC Winterthur
78%
Draw or FC Winterthur
50%

Winning margin

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+
29%
FC Winterthur wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals
86%
BSC Young Boys 2+ goals
59%
BSC Young Boys 3+ goals
32%
FC Winterthur 1+ goals
77%
FC Winterthur 2+ goals
43%
FC Winterthur 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)
64%
FC Winterthur (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSC Young Boys at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.13 · 7 matches

FC Winterthur away — creates 1.79, concedes 2.21 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSC Young Boys attack 1.78 + FC Winterthur defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.00

FC Winterthur attack 1.79 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

BSC Young Boys scores more
50%
level
22%
FC Winterthur scores more
28%

BSC Young Boys at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "BSC Young Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BSC Young Boys vs FC Winterthur

BSC Young Boys beat FC Winterthur 5-2 in Super League on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Wankdorf in Bern.