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BSC Young Boys vs FC Thun — Super League 2018

BSC Young Boys
BSC Young Boys
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC Thun
FC Thun
G. Gaudino 90'
M. Sulejmani 71', 51' (pen)
M. Ngamaleu 45+2' (pen)
7/8/2020Super LeagueSuper League · Round 29STADE DE SUISSE Wankdorf Bern

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

BSC Young Boys58%
×Draw20%
FC Thun21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BSC Young Boys
2.17
FC Thun
1.24

BSC Young Boys creates 75% more chances

Season form · 143 home / 55 away

creates per match

BSC Young Boys
2.56
FC Thun
1.56

allows per match

BSC Young Boys
0.92
FC Thun
1.78

finishing

BSC Young Boys+0.00on par
FC Thun+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSC Young Boys ↓

FC Thun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

BSC Young Boys or draw
79%
BSC Young Boys or FC Thun
80%
Draw or FC Thun
42%

Winning margin

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+
36%
FC Thun wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals
89%
BSC Young Boys 2+ goals
64%
BSC Young Boys 3+ goals
36%
FC Thun 1+ goals
71%
FC Thun 2+ goals
35%
FC Thun 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)
73%
FC Thun (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSC Young Boys at home — creates 2.56, concedes 0.92 · 143 matches

FC Thun away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSC Young Boys attack 2.56 + FC Thun defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.17

FC Thun attack 1.56 + BSC Young Boys defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

BSC Young Boys scores more
58%
level
20%
FC Thun scores more
21%

BSC Young Boys at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "BSC Young Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
M. SulejmaniBSC Young BoysBSC Young Boys · M
9.2

Match Events

16'
H. Bande
34'
M. Sulejmani← G. Hoarau
35'
V. Sierro
45+2'
S. Glarner
45+2'
M. NgamaleuPenalty
50'
H. Bande
50'
H. Bande
51'
M. SulejmaniPenalty
59'
G. Gaudino← M. Ngamaleu
59'
S. Janko← J. Lotomba
60'
M. Elia← F. Lustenberger
60'
M. Tosetti← L. Bertone
60'
K. Fatkic← G. Karlen
65'
Saleh Chihadeh← R. Munsy
68'
S. Chihadeh
71'
M. Sulejmani↳ M. Elia
72'
C. Kablan← N. Hefti
72'
H. Ahmed← M. Castroman
76'
C. Martins← M. Aebischer
90'
G. Gaudino↳ M. Elia

Possession

58%BSC

Shots

21BSC

Pass accuracy

53%BSC

Statistics

BSCFC
Overview
58%Possession42%
21Total Shots2
11Corners4
11Fouls13
Shots
21Total Shots2
8On Target0
10Off Target0
3Blocked2
16Inside Box1
5Outside Box1
Passing
58%Possession42%
497Total Passes352
407Accurate Passes258
82%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls13
1Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
2Offsides3

Match Recap: BSC Young Boys vs FC Thun

BSC Young Boys beat FC Thun 4-0 in Super League on July 8, 2020.

Goals: M. Ngamaleu (45+2' pen), M. Sulejmani (51' pen, 71'), G. Gaudino (90').

BSC Young Boys controlled possession (58%) and registered 21 shots to 2.

The match was played at STADE DE SUISSE Wankdorf Bern in Bern.