BSC Young Boys 1–1 FC Luzern: Result & Stats

BSC Young Boys

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FC Luzern

M. Ngamaleu 90+4'

M. Schulz 30' (pen)

10/16/2021

Super League · Round 10Stadion Wankdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

BSC Young Boys42%

×Draw23%

FC Luzern34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BSC Young BoysExpected goals in this matchFC Luzern

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.50

BSC Young Boys

1.68

FC Luzern

1.50

BSC Young Boys creates 12% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

1.83

creates per match

1.87

1.14

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

BSC Young Boys

1.83

FC Luzern

1.87

allows per match

BSC Young Boys

1.14

FC Luzern

1.52

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

BSC Young Boys-0.23scores less

FC Luzern+0.04on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSC Young Boys ↓

FC Luzern →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

BSC Young Boys or draw

66%

BSC Young Boys or FC Luzern

77%

Draw or FC Luzern

58%

Winning margin

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+

22%

FC Luzern wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals

81%

BSC Young Boys 2+ goals

50%

BSC Young Boys 3+ goals

24%

FC Luzern 1+ goals

78%

FC Luzern 2+ goals

44%

FC Luzern 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)

55%

FC Luzern (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSC Young Boys at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.14 · 10 matches

FC Luzern away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.52 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSC Young Boys attack 1.83 + FC Luzern defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.68

FC Luzern attack 1.87 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

BSC Young Boys scores more

42%

level

23%

FC Luzern scores more

34%

BSC Young Boys at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "BSC Young Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

M. Aebischer

BSC Young Boys · M

8.2

Match Events

29'

Christopher Martins Pereira

30'

M. SchulzPenalty

39'

Christopher Martins Pereira

39'

Christopher Martins Pereira

41'

Christian Fassnacht

46'

Q. Maceiras← S. Hefti

46'

V. Sierro← J. Siebatcheu

67'

71'

71'

74'

80'

81'

86'

86'

F. Mambimbi← C. Fassnacht

90+4'

M. Ngamaleu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BSCFC

Overview

61%Possession39%

28Total Shots7

9Corners3

11Fouls8

Shots

28Total Shots7

7On Target2

14Off Target4

7Blocked1

22Inside Box4

6Outside Box3

Passing

61%Possession39%

505Total Passes319

441Accurate Passes248

87%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls8

5Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides0