BSC Young Boys 5–2 FC Luzern: Result & Stats

BSC Young Boys

FT

5 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

FC Luzern

M. Spielmann 77'

J. Nsame 74'

C. Fassnacht 60', 47'

M. Aebischer 35'

V. Tasar 40'

S. Grether 9'

5/15/2021

Super League · Round 35Stadion Wankdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

BSC Young Boys42%

×Draw23%

FC Luzern34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BSC Young BoysExpected goals in this matchFC Luzern

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.50

BSC Young Boys

1.68

FC Luzern

1.50

BSC Young Boys creates 12% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

1.83

creates per match

1.87

1.14

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

BSC Young Boys

1.83

FC Luzern

1.87

allows per match

BSC Young Boys

1.14

FC Luzern

1.52

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

BSC Young Boys-0.23scores less

FC Luzern+0.04on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSC Young Boys ↓

FC Luzern →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

BSC Young Boys or draw

66%

BSC Young Boys or FC Luzern

77%

Draw or FC Luzern

58%

Winning margin

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+

22%

FC Luzern wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals

81%

BSC Young Boys 2+ goals

50%

BSC Young Boys 3+ goals

24%

FC Luzern 1+ goals

78%

FC Luzern 2+ goals

44%

FC Luzern 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)

55%

FC Luzern (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSC Young Boys at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.14 · 10 matches

FC Luzern away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.52 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSC Young Boys attack 1.83 + FC Luzern defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.68

FC Luzern attack 1.87 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

BSC Young Boys scores more

42%

level

23%

FC Luzern scores more

34%

BSC Young Boys at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "BSC Young Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

C. Fassnacht

BSC Young Boys · M

9.7

Match Events

5'

Pascal Schürpf

9'

S. Grether↳ V. Tasar

12'

Jordan Lefort

35'

M. Aebischer↳ J. Lefort

38'

Cedric Zesiger

38'

Varol Tasar

40'

V. Tasar↳ Álex Carbonell

47'

C. Fassnacht↳ Mohamed Ali Camara

60'

C. Fassnacht↳ M. Sulejmani

62'

G. Gaudino← F. Mambimbi

62'

U. Garcia← C. Zesiger

62'

M. Spielmann← M. Sulejmani

66'

F. Ugrinic← P. Schürpf

66'

J. Wehrmann← L. Emini

66'

I. Ndiaye← Álex Carbonell

74'

J. Nsame↳ C. Fassnacht

77'

M. Spielmann↳ C. Fassnacht

78'

S. Lauper← J. Nsame

78'

V. Sierro← M. Aebischer

81'

Y. Alounga← D. Sorgić

81'

A. Balaruban← S. Grether

83'

David von Ballmoos

83'

Lucas AlvesGoal cancelled

87'

Silvan Sidler

90'

Filip Ugrinic

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BSCFC

Overview

67%Possession33%

19Total Shots15

7Corners3

11Fouls12

Shots

19Total Shots15

6On Target4

10Off Target7

3Blocked4

14Inside Box8

5Outside Box7

Passing

67%Possession33%

559Total Passes279

494Accurate Passes199

88%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls12

3Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1

Super League: BSC Young Boys 5–2 FC Luzern

BSC Young Boys beat FC Luzern 5-2 in Super League on May 15, 2021.

Goals: S. Grether (9'), M. Aebischer (35'), V. Tasar (40'), C. Fassnacht (47', 60'), J. Nsame (74'), M. Spielmann (77').

BSC Young Boys controlled possession (67%) and registered 19 shots to 15.

The match was played at Stadion Wankdorf in Bern.

BSC Young Boys vs FC Luzern — Super League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Super League: BSC Young Boys 5–2 FC Luzern