BSC Young Boys vs Étoile Carouge

BSC Young Boys

Preview

16:15

Étoile Carouge

7/18/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

64%

BSC Young Boys

model favours

64%19%18%

BSC Young Boys score first in only 30% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1

likely score

70%

over 2.5 goals

64%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

BSC Young Boys64%

×Draw19%

Étoile Carouge18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BSC Young BoysExpected goals in this matchÉtoile Carouge

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

1.20

BSC Young Boys

2.42

Étoile Carouge

1.20

BSC Young Boys creates 102% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 6 away

2.50

creates per match

1.33

1.06

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

BSC Young Boys

2.50

Étoile Carouge

1.33

allows per match

BSC Young Boys

1.06

Étoile Carouge

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BSC Young Boys+0.00on par

Étoile Carouge+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSC Young Boys ↓

Étoile Carouge →

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

BSC Young Boys or draw

82%

BSC Young Boys or Étoile Carouge

81%

Draw or Étoile Carouge

36%

Winning margin

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+

42%

Étoile Carouge wins by 2+

Team goals

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals

91%

BSC Young Boys 2+ goals

69%

BSC Young Boys 3+ goals

43%

Étoile Carouge 1+ goals

70%

Étoile Carouge 2+ goals

34%

Étoile Carouge 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)

78%

Étoile Carouge (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

BSC Young Boys at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

Étoile Carouge away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

BSC Young Boys attack 2.50 + Étoile Carouge defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.42

Étoile Carouge attack 1.33 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

BSC Young Boys scores more

64%

level

19%

Étoile Carouge scores more

18%

BSC Young Boys at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "BSC Young Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

65% of BSC Young Boys’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Boys

WWDDW

Carouge

WLLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff