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BSC Young Boys vs Dinamo Zagreb — UEFA Champions League 2026

BSC Young Boys
BSC Young Boys
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Dinamo Zagreb
Dinamo Zagreb
8/22/2018UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · Play-offsStade de Suisse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

BSC Young Boys39%
×Draw24%
Dinamo Zagreb37%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BSC Young Boys
1.57
Dinamo Zagreb
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 20 away

creates per match

BSC Young Boys
2.00
Dinamo Zagreb
1.20

allows per match

BSC Young Boys
1.83
Dinamo Zagreb
1.15

finishing

BSC Young Boys+0.00on par
Dinamo Zagreb+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSC Young Boys ↓

Dinamo Zagreb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

BSC Young Boys or draw
63%
BSC Young Boys or Dinamo Zagreb
76%
Draw or Dinamo Zagreb
61%

Winning margin

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+
19%
Dinamo Zagreb wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals
79%
BSC Young Boys 2+ goals
46%
BSC Young Boys 3+ goals
21%
Dinamo Zagreb 1+ goals
78%
Dinamo Zagreb 2+ goals
45%
Dinamo Zagreb 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)
51%
Dinamo Zagreb (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSC Young Boys at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

Dinamo Zagreb away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSC Young Boys attack 2.00 + Dinamo Zagreb defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.57

Dinamo Zagreb attack 1.20 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

BSC Young Boys scores more
39%
level
24%
Dinamo Zagreb scores more
37%

BSC Young Boys at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "BSC Young Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League: BSC Young Boys 1–1 Dinamo Zagreb

BSC Young Boys and Dinamo Zagreb drew 1-1 in UEFA Champions League on August 22, 2018.

The match was played at Stade de Suisse in Bern.