BSC Young Boys 4–3 Bayer Leverkusen: Result & Stats

BSC Young Boys

FT

4 – 3

HT: 3 – 0

Bayer Leverkusen

T. Siebatcheu 89', 19'

M. Elia 44'

C. Fassnacht 3'

M. Diaby 68'

P. Schick 52', 49'

2/18/2021

UEFA Europa League · Round of 32Stadion Wankdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

BSC Young Boys36%

×Draw22%

Bayer Leverkusen42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BSC Young BoysExpected goals in this matchBayer Leverkusen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.81

BSC Young Boys

1.67

Bayer Leverkusen

1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 17 away

1.86

creates per match

2.18

1.43

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

BSC Young Boys

1.86

Bayer Leverkusen

2.18

allows per match

BSC Young Boys

1.43

Bayer Leverkusen

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BSC Young Boys+0.00on par

Bayer Leverkusen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSC Young Boys ↓

Bayer Leverkusen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

BSC Young Boys or draw

58%

BSC Young Boys or Bayer Leverkusen

78%

Draw or Bayer Leverkusen

64%

Winning margin

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+

18%

Bayer Leverkusen wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals

81%

BSC Young Boys 2+ goals

50%

BSC Young Boys 3+ goals

23%

Bayer Leverkusen 1+ goals

84%

Bayer Leverkusen 2+ goals

54%

Bayer Leverkusen 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)

46%

Bayer Leverkusen (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSC Young Boys at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

Bayer Leverkusen away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSC Young Boys attack 1.86 + Bayer Leverkusen defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.67

Bayer Leverkusen attack 2.18 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

BSC Young Boys scores more

36%

level

22%

Bayer Leverkusen scores more

42%

Bayer Leverkusen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bayer Leverkusen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

T. Siebatcheu

BSC Young Boys · F

8.5

Match Events

3'

C. Fassnacht↳ M. Aebischer

19'

T. Siebatcheu↳ M. Aebischer

44'

M. Elia

46'

E. Tapsoba← N. Amiri

49'

P. Schick↳ J. Frimpong

52'

P. Schick

56'

Jordan Lefort

58'

U. Garcia← M. Ngamaleu

65'

M. Diaby← L. Bailey

68'

M. Diaby↳ F. Wirtz

74'

F. Mambimbi← M. Elia

74'

M. Sulejmani← J. Lefort

80'

G. Gaudino← C. Fassnacht

81'

F. Rieder← S. Lauper

86'

Daley Sinkgraven

89'

T. Siebatcheu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BSCBayer

Overview

40%Possession60%

16Total Shots17

8Corners6

13Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots17

8On Target9

2Off Target3

6Blocked5

11Inside Box12

5Outside Box5

Passing

40%Possession60%

352Total Passes540

269Accurate Passes435

76%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0