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BSC Süd 05 vs Mecklenburg Schwerin — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

BSC Süd 05
BSC Süd 05
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Mecklenburg Schwerin
Mecklenburg Schwerin
1/29/2022Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 14Werner-Seelenbinder-Sportplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

BSC Süd 0538%
×Draw23%
Mecklenburg Schwerin39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BSC Süd 05
1.64
Mecklenburg Schwerin
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 33 away

creates per match

BSC Süd 05
0.85
Mecklenburg Schwerin
1.39

allows per match

BSC Süd 05
1.95
Mecklenburg Schwerin
2.42

finishing

BSC Süd 05+0.00on par
Mecklenburg Schwerin+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSC Süd 05 ↓

Mecklenburg Schwerin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

BSC Süd 05 or draw
61%
BSC Süd 05 or Mecklenburg Schwerin
77%
Draw or Mecklenburg Schwerin
62%

Winning margin

BSC Süd 05 wins by 2+
19%
Mecklenburg Schwerin wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

BSC Süd 05 1+ goals
81%
BSC Süd 05 2+ goals
49%
BSC Süd 05 3+ goals
23%
Mecklenburg Schwerin 1+ goals
81%
Mecklenburg Schwerin 2+ goals
50%
Mecklenburg Schwerin 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

BSC Süd 05 (draw refunded)
49%
Mecklenburg Schwerin (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSC Süd 05 at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.95 · 20 matches

Mecklenburg Schwerin away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.42 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSC Süd 05 attack 0.85 + Mecklenburg Schwerin defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.64

Mecklenburg Schwerin attack 1.39 + BSC Süd 05 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

BSC Süd 05 scores more
38%
level
23%
Mecklenburg Schwerin scores more
39%

Mecklenburg Schwerin at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mecklenburg Schwerin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BSC Süd 05 vs Mecklenburg Schwerin

Mecklenburg Schwerin beat BSC Süd 05 2-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on January 29, 2022.

The match was played at Werner-Seelenbinder-Sportplatz in Brandenburg an der Have.