BSC Süd 05 2–1 Hertha Zehlendorf: Result & Stats

BSC Süd 05

FT

2 – 1

Hertha Zehlendorf

10/30/2021

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 12Werner-Seelenbinder-Sportplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

BSC Süd 0518%

×Draw20%

Hertha Zehlendorf61%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BSC Süd 05Expected goals in this matchHertha Zehlendorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

2.14

BSC Süd 05

1.08

Hertha Zehlendorf

2.14

Hertha Zehlendorf creates 98% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 52 away

0.85

creates per match

2.33

1.95

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

BSC Süd 05

0.85

Hertha Zehlendorf

2.33

allows per match

BSC Süd 05

1.95

Hertha Zehlendorf

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BSC Süd 05+0.00on par

Hertha Zehlendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSC Süd 05 ↓

Hertha Zehlendorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–29%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

BSC Süd 05 or draw

39%

BSC Süd 05 or Hertha Zehlendorf

80%

Draw or Hertha Zehlendorf

82%

Winning margin

BSC Süd 05 wins by 2+

7%

Hertha Zehlendorf wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

BSC Süd 05 1+ goals

66%

BSC Süd 05 2+ goals

29%

BSC Süd 05 3+ goals

10%

Hertha Zehlendorf 1+ goals

88%

Hertha Zehlendorf 2+ goals

63%

Hertha Zehlendorf 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

BSC Süd 05 (draw refunded)

23%

Hertha Zehlendorf (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSC Süd 05 at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.95 · 20 matches

Hertha Zehlendorf away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.31 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSC Süd 05 attack 0.85 + Hertha Zehlendorf defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.08

Hertha Zehlendorf attack 2.33 + BSC Süd 05 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

BSC Süd 05 scores more

18%

level

20%

Hertha Zehlendorf scores more

61%

Hertha Zehlendorf at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Hertha Zehlendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff