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BSC Süd 05 vs Eintracht Mahlsdorf — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

BSC Süd 05
BSC Süd 05
FT
0 – 2
Eintracht Mahlsdorf
Eintracht Mahlsdorf
9/25/2021Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 8Werner-Seelenbinder-Sportplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

BSC Süd 0523%
×Draw23%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BSC Süd 05
1.14
Eintracht Mahlsdorf
1.85

Eintracht Mahlsdorf creates 62% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 76 away

creates per match

BSC Süd 05
0.85
Eintracht Mahlsdorf
1.75

allows per match

BSC Süd 05
1.95
Eintracht Mahlsdorf
1.43

finishing

BSC Süd 05+0.00on par
Eintracht Mahlsdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSC Süd 05 ↓

Eintracht Mahlsdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

BSC Süd 05 or draw
46%
BSC Süd 05 or Eintracht Mahlsdorf
77%
Draw or Eintracht Mahlsdorf
77%

Winning margin

BSC Süd 05 wins by 2+
9%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

BSC Süd 05 1+ goals
68%
BSC Süd 05 2+ goals
32%
BSC Süd 05 3+ goals
11%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf 1+ goals
84%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf 2+ goals
55%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

BSC Süd 05 (draw refunded)
30%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSC Süd 05 at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.95 · 20 matches

Eintracht Mahlsdorf away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.43 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSC Süd 05 attack 0.85 + Eintracht Mahlsdorf defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.14

Eintracht Mahlsdorf attack 1.75 + BSC Süd 05 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

BSC Süd 05 scores more
23%
level
23%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf scores more
54%

Eintracht Mahlsdorf at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Eintracht Mahlsdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: BSC Süd 05 0–2 Eintracht Mahlsdorf

Eintracht Mahlsdorf beat BSC Süd 05 2-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on September 25, 2021.

The match was played at Werner-Seelenbinder-Sportplatz in Brandenburg an der Have.