BSC Glasgow 0–2 Tranent Juniors: Result & Stats

BSC Glasgow

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Tranent Juniors

10/23/2021

FA Cup · 2nd RoundIndodrill Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

BSC Glasgow53%

×Draw20%

Tranent Juniors27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BSC GlasgowExpected goals in this matchTranent Juniors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.59

BSC Glasgow

2.29

Tranent Juniors

1.59

BSC Glasgow creates 44% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.88

creates per match

1.43

1.75

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

BSC Glasgow

1.88

Tranent Juniors

1.43

allows per match

BSC Glasgow

1.75

Tranent Juniors

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BSC Glasgow+0.00on par

Tranent Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSC Glasgow ↓

Tranent Juniors →

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

BSC Glasgow or draw

73%

BSC Glasgow or Tranent Juniors

80%

Draw or Tranent Juniors

47%

Winning margin

BSC Glasgow wins by 2+

32%

Tranent Juniors wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

BSC Glasgow 1+ goals

90%

BSC Glasgow 2+ goals

66%

BSC Glasgow 3+ goals

40%

Tranent Juniors 1+ goals

80%

Tranent Juniors 2+ goals

47%

Tranent Juniors 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

BSC Glasgow (draw refunded)

67%

Tranent Juniors (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

BSC Glasgow at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Tranent Juniors away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

BSC Glasgow attack 1.88 + Tranent Juniors defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.29

Tranent Juniors attack 1.43 + BSC Glasgow defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

BSC Glasgow scores more

53%

level

20%

Tranent Juniors scores more

27%

BSC Glasgow at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "BSC Glasgow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff