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BSC Glasgow vs Hibernian — FA Cup 2019

BSC Glasgow
BSC Glasgow
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Hibernian
Hibernian
2/9/2020FA CupFA Cup · 5th RoundIndodrill Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

BSC Glasgow30%
×Draw23%
Hibernian47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BSC Glasgow
1.41
Hibernian
1.81

Hibernian creates 28% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

creates per match

BSC Glasgow
1.88
Hibernian
1.86

allows per match

BSC Glasgow
1.75
Hibernian
0.93

finishing

BSC Glasgow+0.00on par
Hibernian+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSC Glasgow ↓

Hibernian →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

BSC Glasgow or draw
53%
BSC Glasgow or Hibernian
77%
Draw or Hibernian
70%

Winning margin

BSC Glasgow wins by 2+
13%
Hibernian wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

BSC Glasgow 1+ goals
76%
BSC Glasgow 2+ goals
41%
BSC Glasgow 3+ goals
17%
Hibernian 1+ goals
84%
Hibernian 2+ goals
54%
Hibernian 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

BSC Glasgow (draw refunded)
39%
Hibernian (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSC Glasgow at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Hibernian away — creates 1.86, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSC Glasgow attack 1.88 + Hibernian defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.41

Hibernian attack 1.86 + BSC Glasgow defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

BSC Glasgow scores more
30%
level
23%
Hibernian scores more
47%

Hibernian at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hibernian will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: BSC Glasgow 1–4 Hibernian

Hibernian beat BSC Glasgow 4-1 in FA Cup on February 9, 2020.

The match was played at Indodrill Stadium in Alloa.