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BSC Glasgow vs Glasgow University — FA Cup 2019

BSC Glasgow
BSC Glasgow
FT
6 – 0
Glasgow University
Glasgow University
9/18/2021FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundIndodrill Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

BSC Glasgow74%
×Draw14%
Glasgow University11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BSC Glasgow
3.02
Glasgow University
1.13

BSC Glasgow creates 167% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

BSC Glasgow
1.88
Glasgow University
0.50

allows per match

BSC Glasgow
1.75
Glasgow University
4.17

finishing

BSC Glasgow+0.00on par
Glasgow University+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSC Glasgow ↓

Glasgow University →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

BSC Glasgow or draw
89%
BSC Glasgow or Glasgow University
86%
Draw or Glasgow University
26%

Winning margin

BSC Glasgow wins by 2+
55%
Glasgow University wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

BSC Glasgow 1+ goals
95%
BSC Glasgow 2+ goals
80%
BSC Glasgow 3+ goals
57%
Glasgow University 1+ goals
68%
Glasgow University 2+ goals
31%
Glasgow University 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

BSC Glasgow (draw refunded)
87%
Glasgow University (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSC Glasgow at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Glasgow University away — creates 0.50, concedes 4.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSC Glasgow attack 1.88 + Glasgow University defence 4.17 → ÷2 → 3.02

Glasgow University attack 0.50 + BSC Glasgow defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

BSC Glasgow scores more
74%
level
14%
Glasgow University scores more
11%

BSC Glasgow at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "BSC Glasgow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BSC Glasgow vs Glasgow University

BSC Glasgow beat Glasgow University 6-0 in FA Cup on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Indodrill Stadium in Alloa.