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BS Bouhajla vs Menzel Bourguiba — Ligue 2 2020

BS Bouhajla
BS Bouhajla
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Menzel Bourguiba
Menzel Bourguiba
M. Nasri 81'
9/20/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

BS Bouhajla57%
×Draw27%
Menzel Bourguiba16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BS Bouhajla
1.41
Menzel Bourguiba
0.59

BS Bouhajla creates 139% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

BS Bouhajla
1.00
Menzel Bourguiba
0.27

allows per match

BS Bouhajla
0.92
Menzel Bourguiba
1.81

finishing

BS Bouhajla+0.00on par
Menzel Bourguiba+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BS Bouhajla ↓

Menzel Bourguiba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

BS Bouhajla or draw
84%
BS Bouhajla or Menzel Bourguiba
73%
Draw or Menzel Bourguiba
43%

Winning margin

BS Bouhajla wins by 2+
29%
Menzel Bourguiba wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

BS Bouhajla 1+ goals
76%
BS Bouhajla 2+ goals
41%
BS Bouhajla 3+ goals
17%
Menzel Bourguiba 1+ goals
45%
Menzel Bourguiba 2+ goals
12%
Menzel Bourguiba 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

BS Bouhajla (draw refunded)
79%
Menzel Bourguiba (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BS Bouhajla at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Menzel Bourguiba away — creates 0.27, concedes 1.81 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BS Bouhajla attack 1.00 + Menzel Bourguiba defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.41

Menzel Bourguiba attack 0.27 + BS Bouhajla defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

BS Bouhajla scores more
57%
level
27%
Menzel Bourguiba scores more
16%

BS Bouhajla at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "BS Bouhajla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

81'
M. Nasri

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: BS Bouhajla 1–0 Menzel Bourguiba

BS Bouhajla beat Menzel Bourguiba 1-0 in Ligue 2 on September 20, 2025.

Goals: M. Nasri (81').