Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

BS Bouhajla vs ES Hammam-Sousse — Ligue 2 2020

BS Bouhajla
BS Bouhajla
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
ES Hammam-Sousse
ES Hammam-Sousse
M. Nour 15'
2/28/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

BS Bouhajla37%
×Draw30%
ES Hammam-Sousse33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BS Bouhajla
1.11
ES Hammam-Sousse
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 44 away

creates per match

BS Bouhajla
1.00
ES Hammam-Sousse
1.16

allows per match

BS Bouhajla
0.92
ES Hammam-Sousse
1.23

finishing

BS Bouhajla+0.00on par
ES Hammam-Sousse+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BS Bouhajla ↓

ES Hammam-Sousse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

BS Bouhajla or draw
67%
BS Bouhajla or ES Hammam-Sousse
70%
Draw or ES Hammam-Sousse
63%

Winning margin

BS Bouhajla wins by 2+
15%
ES Hammam-Sousse wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

BS Bouhajla 1+ goals
67%
BS Bouhajla 2+ goals
30%
BS Bouhajla 3+ goals
10%
ES Hammam-Sousse 1+ goals
65%
ES Hammam-Sousse 2+ goals
28%
ES Hammam-Sousse 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

BS Bouhajla (draw refunded)
53%
ES Hammam-Sousse (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BS Bouhajla at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

ES Hammam-Sousse away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BS Bouhajla attack 1.00 + ES Hammam-Sousse defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

ES Hammam-Sousse attack 1.16 + BS Bouhajla defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

BS Bouhajla scores more
37%
level
30%
ES Hammam-Sousse scores more
33%

BS Bouhajla at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "BS Bouhajla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
M. Nour

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: BS Bouhajla 0–1 ES Hammam-Sousse

ES Hammam-Sousse beat BS Bouhajla 1-0 in Ligue 2 on February 28, 2026.

Goals: M. Nour (15').