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BS Bouhajla vs EM Mahdia — Ligue 2 2020

BS Bouhajla
BS Bouhajla
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
EM Mahdia
EM Mahdia
2/16/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

BS Bouhajla43%
×Draw31%
EM Mahdia26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BS Bouhajla
1.14
EM Mahdia
0.82

BS Bouhajla creates 39% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 55 away

creates per match

BS Bouhajla
1.00
EM Mahdia
0.73

allows per match

BS Bouhajla
0.92
EM Mahdia
1.27

finishing

BS Bouhajla+0.00on par
EM Mahdia+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BS Bouhajla ↓

EM Mahdia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

BS Bouhajla or draw
74%
BS Bouhajla or EM Mahdia
69%
Draw or EM Mahdia
57%

Winning margin

BS Bouhajla wins by 2+
18%
EM Mahdia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

BS Bouhajla 1+ goals
68%
BS Bouhajla 2+ goals
32%
BS Bouhajla 3+ goals
11%
EM Mahdia 1+ goals
56%
EM Mahdia 2+ goals
20%
EM Mahdia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

BS Bouhajla (draw refunded)
62%
EM Mahdia (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BS Bouhajla at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

EM Mahdia away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.27 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BS Bouhajla attack 1.00 + EM Mahdia defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

EM Mahdia attack 0.73 + BS Bouhajla defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

BS Bouhajla scores more
43%
level
31%
EM Mahdia scores more
26%

BS Bouhajla at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "BS Bouhajla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BS Bouhajla vs EM Mahdia

BS Bouhajla and EM Mahdia drew 0-0 in Ligue 2 on February 16, 2026.