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BS Bouhajla vs Bouselem — Ligue 2 2020

BS Bouhajla
BS Bouhajla
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Bouselem
Bouselem
3/29/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

BS Bouhajla55%
×Draw29%
Bouselem16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BS Bouhajla
1.31
Bouselem
0.58

BS Bouhajla creates 126% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

BS Bouhajla
1.00
Bouselem
0.23

allows per match

BS Bouhajla
0.92
Bouselem
1.62

finishing

BS Bouhajla+0.00on par
Bouselem+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BS Bouhajla ↓

Bouselem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

BS Bouhajla or draw
84%
BS Bouhajla or Bouselem
71%
Draw or Bouselem
45%

Winning margin

BS Bouhajla wins by 2+
26%
Bouselem wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

BS Bouhajla 1+ goals
73%
BS Bouhajla 2+ goals
38%
BS Bouhajla 3+ goals
14%
Bouselem 1+ goals
44%
Bouselem 2+ goals
12%
Bouselem 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

BS Bouhajla (draw refunded)
77%
Bouselem (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BS Bouhajla at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Bouselem away — creates 0.23, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BS Bouhajla attack 1.00 + Bouselem defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.31

Bouselem attack 0.23 + BS Bouhajla defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

BS Bouhajla scores more
55%
level
29%
Bouselem scores more
16%

BS Bouhajla at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "BS Bouhajla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BS Bouhajla vs Bouselem

Bouselem beat BS Bouhajla 2-0 in Ligue 2 on March 29, 2026.