Brzi Brod vs Dinamo Vranje — Srpska Liga - East 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 7+ matches
Brzi Brod60%
Dinamo Vranje17%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Brzi Brod creates 122% more chances
Season form · 58 home / 7 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under53
- Over47
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No55
- Yes45
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Brzi Brod ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Brzi Brod at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.16 · 58 matches
Dinamo Vranje away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Brzi Brod attack 1.64 + Dinamo Vranje defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.75
Dinamo Vranje attack 0.43 + Brzi Brod defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.79
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 60%?"
Brzi Brod at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 60% does not mean "Brzi Brod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Jagodina
Budućnost Popovac
Sinđelić
Toplicanin Prokuplje
SFS Borac
Vlasina
Timočanin
Radan
Moravac Mrštane
Dunav Prahovo
Car Konstantin
Dubočica
Rembas
Jedinstvo Bošnjace
Trstenik PPT
Temnic 1924If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Brzi Brod host Dinamo Vranje on Sunday, 29 May 2022 at 15:30. The match is part of the Srpska Liga - East 2019/2020 season.
Brzi Brod face Dinamo Vranje (Srpska Liga - East)
Srpska Liga - East returns with Brzi Brod hosting Dinamo Vranje. Match starts May 29, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Brzi Brod host Dinamo Vranje at Stadion OFK Brzi Brod.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.